One the things that jumps out of “In It Together” – Matthew D’Ancona’s account of the first half of the Coalition – is how the Lib Dems always end up uniting, even in rebellion. While Conservative rebellions (House of Lords reform, EU referendum) have been splits, the Lib Dems have stuck together – whether it be voting for tuition fees or against redrawing the boundaries.
I have always thought that one of the reasons for Lib Dem unitedness is that Nick Clegg asked the membership to approve the Coalition’s formation. This collective decision created a sense of collective responsibility and collective purpose. David Cameron, on the other hand, informed his MPs on the progress of talks but never asked for a public vote of support. Asking members for their views was never considered. It is easier to rebel against something if you weren’t part of creating it.
A recent study of by Professors Tim Bale and Paul Webb found that “more than 3/4 of Tory members will… sanction a second Coalition with the Lib Dems in-order to hold on to Number 10″.* It is good to see that Conservatives have not lost their desire for power. Of course, things may change once the actual deal is presented. I find it difficult to believe that the Conservatives would agree to a Coalition without there being a commitment to an EU referendum. I also find it difficult to believe that the Lib Dems would form a Coalition with the Conservatives again without constitutional change being locked-in. (Maybe part of the House of Lords being elected by PR?)
Are these red lines compatible? I don’t know. What I’m more certain of is that any future Coalition will only be successful if the members approve the deal.
(*If you are interested in what the Conservative Party membership thinks and looks like, read Tim Bale’s blog for the Political Studies Association.)
